Venture Geopolitics Issue 44
21 April 2026
Last week, I argued that in an AI-native economy, marginal costs are back - and whoever cannot solve energy and infrastructure will watch others capture the value. This week, Ed Miliband unveiled plans to delink UK electricity prices from gas through fixed-price contracts for difference. I can only assume he’s a subscriber.
But as power receives overdue political attention, the week’s headlines point to scarcity elsewhere in the stack. In the US, nearly 40% of data centre projects reportedly face delays, while Maine became the first state to halt new large-scale data centre construction, with many more states considering the same. The practical limits on AI expansion are increasingly planning approvals, grid access, construction timelines and hardware supply.
Against that backdrop, OpenAI recently raised at roughly $850 billion and this week Anthropic was reportedly ‘shrugging’ off investors at similar levels. Capital remains a weapon - these businesses require vast sums of it - but money cannot magic new substations into existence. Capital buys time. Margins buy independence. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 release offers a clue. Analysis suggests the same input may now map to materially more tokens at similar headline pricing. Whether this is margin management or compute rationing points to the same conclusion: model labs are desperately managing scarce capacity.
Which leads to a sharper question: what kills Anthropic?
NIMBYism, quite possibly. Data centres require land, water, power and transmission lines — all the ingredients modern politics struggles to permit quickly. Meanwhile, the hyperscalers control an estimated 70% of global AI compute. They own the customer relationships, run the cloud platforms and possess balance sheets that recycle existing profits into chips, campuses and power procurement. Anthropic’s $100 billion Amazon commitment reflects that reality. The frontier labs are fighting the infrastructure war on borrowed ground.
Apple’s decision to outsource AI to Google while appointing a hardware executive to succeed Tim Cook offers a different perspective. Cook has spent a career making enormously profitable decisions. If there is a strategic message in that handover, it is that LLMs are being commoditised. Durable value lies elsewhere: devices, distribution, compute at the edge.
When the Channel Tunnel opened in 1994, it was one of the great engineering achievements of the late twentieth century and one of the more sobering financial outcomes. Builders absorbed immense capex and construction risk, only to find that long-term value accrued to those operating on top of the asset.
History rhymes. Vast sums are being committed upfront, scarcity is real, everyone agrees the asset matters. What remains unresolved is who captures the economics once the tunnel is built. Meanwhile, markets remain sufficiently delirious that even Allbirds is trying its luck.
IPOs / Publics
S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time, up 2% since the US-Iran war began in February, as investors bet on imminent peace despite ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions that have sent oil prices to decade highs (here)
Taiwan’s stock market overtook the UK’s to become the world’s 7th largest at $4.13T, driven by TSMC which reported record Q1 profits of $18B (+58% YoY) & comprises 45% of Taiwan’s market cap - highlighting Asia’s exposure to the AI chip supercycle versus Europe’s limited positioning outside ASML (here)
X-Energy (Amazon-backed nuclear reactor developer) targets $7.5B valuation in US IPO, seeking up to $814M by offering 42.9M shares at $16-19 each, as nuclear experiences resurgence driven by hyperscaler electricity demand for AI processing (here)
Cerebras filed for IPO after scrapping 2024 plans, reporting $88M profit on $510M revenue (76% growth) driven by $20B+ OpenAI deal through 2028 & reduced UAE customer concentration from 87% to 24% (here)
Wise confirmed its primary listing switch from London to the US will complete this quarter, marking another blow to the City after reporting 26% growth in cross-border volumes to £50B & 22% customer growth to 11.3M (here)
Victory Giant (PCB maker for AI servers) seeks $2.2B in Hong Kong IPO at 37% discount to Shenzhen price, backed by cornerstone investors including Jack Ma’s Yunfeng Capital - testing appetite for tech listings amid geopolitical tensions & regulatory scrutiny (here)
Ramp (corporate card & expense software) hit $1.4B annual revenue run rate as it prepares for IPO, up from $1B in September, with customer base growing 70% YoY & expects $125M free cash flow this year - valuation jumped from $13B to $32B across three 2025 rounds led by Lightspeed (here)
Google assembled a strike team to improve its AI coding models after falling behind Anthropic, which leads in code generation - part of Sergey Brin’s push toward AI that can improve itself by automating software development (here)
Google is in talks with Marvell to develop two new AI inference chips - a memory processing unit to work alongside TPUs & a new TPU variant - as it seeks to diversify from Broadcom amid surging inference demand. Google plans ~2M memory processing units vs 6M TPUs by 2027, highlighting the growing need for specialised inference hardware as AI workloads become more sophisticated (here)
Tim Cook will step down as Apple CEO in September after 15 years, becoming executive chairman as John Ternus (hardware engineering head) takes over - transition comes as Apple faces questions over AI strategy, executive departures & navigating US-China tensions despite remaining highly profitable with $110B annual profit (here)
ASML raised 2026 sales guidance to €36B-€40B (up to 22% growth) as AI chip demand drives orders for its extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, though US export restrictions on China sales create ongoing policy pressure (here)
Big Dogs
Anthropic committed to spend $100B on Amazon chips & computing over 10 years, securing 5GW of capacity, whilst Amazon invests $5B immediately & up to $20B more over time at Anthropic’s $380B valuation (here)
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7, narrowly reclaiming the lead from OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 on key benchmarks (1753 vs 1674 Elo on knowledge work evaluation) with enhanced self-verification capabilities & 3x higher image resolution processing, though GPT-5.4 still leads in agentic search & multilingual tasks - highlighting the increasingly tight competition between frontier AI models (here)
Anthropic is testing an in-chat app builder in Claude that lets users generate applications from prompts, directly challenging Lovable - the Stockholm startup that raised $330M at $6.6B in Dec 2024 & has become Europe’s hottest vibe-coding company (here)
Anthropic announced plans for a London office expansion to house 800 people, growing from its current 200-person presence, days after OpenAI revealed its first permanent London office - both moves highlighting the UK capital’s emergence as a key AI hub outside the US (here)
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei met with White House officials including chief of staff Susie Wiles in talks described as ‘productive’, as the Trump administration seeks to restore government access to the AI company’s technology after the Pentagon designated it a supply chain risk over disagreements on military use of AI (here)
The NSA is using Anthropic’s powerful Mythos model for cybersecurity scanning despite the Pentagon labelling Anthropic a ‘supply chain risk’ & moving to blacklist the company in February, highlighting tensions between operational needs & institutional disputes over AI governance (here)
OpenAI launches new image generation model with significantly improved text rendering & realistic output, targeting Google’s dominance after CEO Sam Altman declared ‘code red’ over competitive threats - enhanced capabilities could boost advertising & education applications (here)
OpenAI launched GPT-5.4-Cyber to select customers, following Anthropic’s Mythos release last week - both models autonomously hunt software vulnerabilities, triggering regulatory concerns as US Treasury & Fed summoned major banks to discuss cyber risks posed by AI-powered security tools (here) (to be clear: the two aren't directly comparable - GPT-5.4-Cyber's benchmarks are based on capture-the-flag competitions, where vulnerabilities are pre-staged; Mythos goes further, autonomously traversing the full chain from unknown vulnerability discovery to working exploit)
Cursor raising at least $2B at $50B valuation from Thrive & Andreessen Horowitz, with strategic participation from Nvidia, as annualized revenue climbs towards $6B target by end-2026. The startup recently achieved gross margin profitability on enterprise sales by deploying proprietary models alongside cheaper alternatives like China’s Kimi, reducing reliance on third-party providers like Anthropic (here)
DeepSeek is raising outside capital for the first time at $10B+ valuation, seeking at least $300M to compete in frontier AI development as it faces talent drain to ByteDance & Xiaomi while struggling with V4 model delays amid U.S. chip restrictions (here)
Venture Capital
Sequoia Capital raised ~$7B for late-stage investments, doubling its previous expansion fund size as new co-leaders Alfred Lin & Pat Grady position for major AI bets including OpenAI, Anthropic & xAI - all eyeing 2026 IPOs that could deliver significant returns (here)
Accel raised $5B ($4B for its late-stage Leaders Fund, $650M sidecar) targeting AI-focused companies across software, hardware, robotics, defence tech & data centres, averaging $200M checks as competition intensifies for late-stage AI deals (here)
UK launched £500M Sovereign AI fund supporting domestic AI startups to win from the UK. Chaired by Balderton Capital’s James Wise & supported by Joséphine Kant, the fund offers compute access via government supercomputers alongside traditional funding. The first 7 teams to work with the fund include Callosum, Prima Mente, Cosine, Cursive, Doubleword, Twig Bio & Odyssey (here)
Lockheed Martin expanded its venture fund 250% to $1B, with three UK portfolio companies (CloudNC, SatVu, Q5D) representing advanced manufacturing, satellite imaging & robotics - highlighting US defence capital’s growing presence in UK dual-use tech but raising questions about long-term UK defence industrial base benefits (here)
British Business Bank committed £100M to Apposite Healthcare Growth I, its largest fund commitment to date (here)
ET Capital launched Cambridge Venture Index Fund 2, targeting up to 20 early-stage deeptech startups from Cambridge & Oxford ecosystems (here)
Unconventional Ventures closed second round of Fund II, to support its thesis of investing in overlooked founders building scalable companies (here)
ACE & Company raised $228M across two funds (here)
Regulation
Microsoft & other US tech firms successfully lobbied the EU to classify datacentre emissions data as confidential, with industry demands written almost verbatim into EU rules - blocking public access to environmental metrics despite legal scholars warning this violates transparency obligations under the Aarhus convention (here)
EU plans biggest merger rule relaxation in decades, with draft guidelines prioritising scale, innovation & resilience over pure consumer pricing effects - a shift towards creating ‘European champions’ to compete with US & Chinese rivals after geopolitical shocks exposed regional economic weaknesses (here)
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirms an executive order requiring US banks to collect citizenship data from customers is ‘in process’, despite warnings of $2.6B-5.6B in compliance costs & concerns about excluding immigrants from the banking system (here)
US Customs launches CAPE refund system on 20 April to process $166B in tariff refunds after Supreme Court struck down Trump’s global tariffs as unlawful in February, with 56,497 importers already registered for $127B in electronic refunds (here)
The US Energy Information Administration plans to implement the first nationwide mandatory survey of data center energy consumption, following pilot programmes in Texas, Washington & northern Virginia that complete by September (here)
Maine became the first US state to ban data centre construction, prohibiting projects over 20 megawatts until late 2027 for impact assessment - part of growing nationwide resistance that has blocked $156B in data centre investments over energy & environmental concerns (here)
Ofcom launched investigations into Telegram over child sexual abuse material allegations & two teen chat sites (Teen Chat & Chat Avenue) over grooming risks, following evidence from Canadian Centre for Child Protection - six file-sharing providers withdrew from UK after similar safety concerns (here)
Venture Geopolitics
European governments are rapidly abandoning WhatsApp & Signal for homegrown messaging apps, with France, Germany, Poland, Netherlands, Belgium & Luxembourg deploying secure alternatives for official communications - a sovereignty push accelerated by Trump’s return & incidents like Pentagon classified plans shared on Signal (here)
UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband will unveil plans to delink electricity prices from gas costs by pushing wind & solar farms into fixed-price contracts for difference, backed by higher windfall taxes on generators outside these schemes - responding to Iran war-driven price spikes that threaten Labour’s pledge to cut bills by £300 by 2030 (here)
European Commission recommends remote working mandates, public transport subsidies & heat pump VAT cuts to reduce energy demand amid Middle East war price shock, drawing from 2022 crisis playbook while preparing electricity market reforms (here)
Cubbit, SUSE, Elemento Cloud & StorPool launched Europe’s first sovereign disaster recovery stack, designed to protect critical workloads from foreign vendor kill-switches whilst enabling data repatriation from non-European cloud infrastructure (here)
Per the FT, Europe faces a stark choice between siding with Trump’s America or authoritarian China, but deeper US-Europe economic & industrial integration remains the only viable path to counter Beijing’s export-led mercantilism and maintain technological sovereignty in AI & critical supply chains (here)
Palantir published a 22-point manifesto (book summary) on X denouncing inclusivity & ‘regressive’ cultures whilst defending military AI development, arguing Silicon Valley owes a moral debt to America & criticising ‘vacant pluralism’ - timing coincides with congressional scrutiny over its ICE deportation tools (here)
Thomson Reuters faces whistleblower lawsuit from fired employee who raised concerns about ICE using its Clear surveillance tool for immigration enforcement, whilst shareholders demand human rights assessment of the $4.8M contract amid broader backlash against surveillance tech providers (here)
Citadel says Trump’s social media posts have transformed oil trading during the Iran war, with volatility increasing 300% in early weeks as traders now monitor presidential messages alongside physical flows - oil hit nearly $120/barrel after Iran moved to close Strait of Hormuz carrying 20% of global crude (here)
China deployed warships through waters closer to Japan’s mainland on the same day Japan joined US-Philippine Balikatan military drills with 1,400 combat troops for the first time, escalating Pacific tensions as both sides test military capabilities around the First Island Chain (here)
James Kirkup argues Britain’s defence weakness stems from public indifference, with Ipsos polling showing just 6% of 18-24 year-olds prioritise defence vs 52% of over-75s, whilst 48% of Britons would refuse to bear arms under any circumstances - reflecting an erosion of martial culture that leaves politicians with no electoral cost for neglecting military spending (here)
Strategic Sectors
AI
Fermi shares plunged 20% after CEO Toby Neugebauer & CFO Miles Everson resigned, extending an 82% decline since the data centre company’s October IPO - insider sales of $68M preceded the departures as the Trump-linked firm struggles to find anchor tenants for its $50B Texas campus despite retaining Amazon’s 20-year lease commitment (here)
Nearly 40% of US data centre projects face delays of 3+ months due to labour shortages, permitting hurdles & equipment constraints, threatening to slow AI expansion for Microsoft, OpenAI & other hyperscalers racing to build gigawatt-scale facilities (here)
Allbirds, the eco-friendly trainer maker that fell 99% from its $4B peak valuation, is pivoting to become an AI compute provider called ‘NewBird AI’ after raising $50M via convertible notes, sending shares up 774% on meme stock speculation (here)
Canada’s Cohere & Germany’s Aleph Alpha reportedly in advanced merger talks with Berlin government backing, as Germany pushes to create a European AI champion to compete with US & Chinese dominance - merger would create dual-headquartered entity with German state as key customer (here)
Notable deals:
Recursive Superintelligence, a 4-month-old AI startup founded by former DeepMind & OpenAI engineers, raised $500M at $4B from GV & Nvidia with potential to reach $1B total, targeting self-improving AI systems that learn without human intervention (here)
Project Prometheus (Jeff Bezos’s AI lab) nears closing $10B funding at $38B valuation, targeting AI models for industrial applications & physical world understanding - JPMorgan & BlackRock among investors in what would be one of the largest early-stage rounds globally (here)
Factory (AI software development platform) raised $150M Series C led by Khosla Ventures at $1.5B, doubling revenue monthly for 6 mo with enterprise clients including Nvidia & Adobe as autonomous coding agents evolve into full-spectrum development systems (here)
Cybersecurity
NIST announced it will only enrich CVEs for critical vulnerabilities due to overwhelming volumes - affecting CISA KEV entries, US federal software, & critical infrastructure systems. The agency has fallen 30,000 CVEs behind since 2024 amid budget cuts & expects AI tools to further explode vulnerability discoveries (here)
Canada unveiled a comprehensive cyber resilience plan targeting AI-driven threats to critical infrastructure including energy, transportation & healthcare, emphasising collaboration between government & private sector entities to detect & mitigate sophisticated cyber attacks (here)
MIT Technology Review identified 22 Telegram channels selling KYC bypass tools targeting major crypto exchanges & banks including Binance & BBVA, as cyberscammers exploit virtual camera technology to circumvent facial recognition systems for money laundering - part of an escalating arms race as regulators tighten oversight following $17B in crypto fraud losses in 2025 (here)
Brussels launched an age verification app that hackers claim to have breached in 2 minutes, exposing unprotected sensitive data & bypassable authentication despite EU claims it was ‘technically ready’ - highlighting rushed regulatory tech deployment amid political pressure to protect minors online (here)
Defence
Rheinmetall secured a €300M German drone contract, initially worth €30M more than rival deals with Munich’s Helsing & Berlin’s Stark, with potential expansion to €2.39B over 7 years (capped at €1B per supplier). The deal follows CEO Armin Papperger’s controversial comments dismissing Ukraine’s drone industry as ‘Ukrainian housewives’ making ‘Lego’ drones with kitchen 3D printers (here)
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is considering issuing war bonds to raise £17.6B for defence spending to meet Labour’s 3% GDP target by 2029-2030, supported by Defence Secretary John Healey & backed by Labour peer Lord Hain & Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey as a politically preferable alternative to welfare cuts (here)
Space
Iran’s IRGC secretly acquired Chinese spy satellite TEE-01B for $36.6M in late 2024, using it to target US military bases across the Middle East during March war - satellite provided half-metre resolution imagery to guide strikes & assess damage, highlighting China’s growing military support for Iran despite regional sensitivities (here)
Energy
Grid-scale battery installations are surging globally as costs drop 75% since 2018 & the Iran War drives demand for alternatives to expensive fossil fuels - projects now rival power plants with Inner Mongolia’s 7.4 GWh facilities & Australia’s batteries outcompeting gas during peak hours (here)
Robotics
China’s second humanoid robot half-marathon features 300+ robots from 70 teams, with 40% running autonomously compared to zero last year - highlighting technical progress but also limitations as robots remain years from industrial deployment despite China’s 80% share of global humanoid installations (here)
Physical Intelligence unveiled π0.7, a robot AI model that performs tasks it wasn’t explicitly trained on - using an air fryer to cook sweet potatoes after seeing only 2 partial training examples, suggesting compositional generalisation capabilities similar to large language models’ breakthrough moments (here)
Critical Materials
TSMC’s $165B Arizona expansion accelerates with 6 planned fabs by 2030, as the Taiwan chipmaker posts 35% revenue growth despite helium supply disruptions from Strait of Hormuz closure - part of broader US semiconductor reshoring alongside Samsung’s $17B Texas facility (here)
USA Rare Earth will acquire Brazilian rare earths producer Serra Verde for $2.8B ($300M cash, remainder shares), marking Washington’s largest bet on securing critical mineral supply chains outside China - Serra Verde expected to produce half of global heavy rare earths outside China by 2027 (here)
Notable deal: Stegra raised €1.4B rescue funding led by Sweden’s Wallenberg family to complete construction of the world’s largest green-steel plant in Boden, with the consortium taking a leading position in the company after months of negotiations (here)
EVs
Electric car sales jumped 51% across continental Europe in March to 224,000 units as Iran war-driven fuel price rises accelerated EV adoption, with Norway hitting 98% market share & southern European markets showing 40%+ growth despite previous sluggish uptake (here)
Uber commits $10B to robotaxis through equity stakes & vehicle orders, abandoning its asset-light model to compete with Waymo, Tesla & Amazon’s Zoox - includes $500M investment in Lucid for 35,000 vehicles as the ride-hailing giant races to secure autonomous supply after selling its own AV unit in 2020 (here)
Crypto
Polymarket seeks funding at $15B valuation, up 66% from its $9B October round but trailing rival Kalshi’s $22B mark - the gap reflects Kalshi’s $1.5B annualized revenue vs Polymarket’s recent US launch & fee introduction (here)
Notable deal: NYSE owner ICE invested $200M in crypto exchange OKX at $25B valuation & agreed to invest up to $2B in prediction market Polymarket, positioning the 233-year-old exchange as an unlikely crypto powerhouse despite past missteps like Bakkt (written down by over $1B) (here)