This morning, I’m gearing up for Day 2 of the London-based Resilience Conference. The spotlight is on hard geopolitics - underscored by yesterday’s conversations with guests from Ukraine. But the themes have also been playing out more subtly in recent “everyday” headlines: the UK government agreed to guarantee a £1.5B loan to Jaguar Land Rover after a cyber shutdown; Dutch authorities arrested two 17-year-olds allegedly recruited over Telegram as pro-Russian spies; and a ransomware attack exposed the personal data of 8,000 children from a UK nursery chain. These aren’t traditional battlefields - but they show how “defence” and “resilience” cut through the economy, society, and technology alike.
IPOs/Public
StubHub has already shed more than $2.2B in market cap since its IPO last week – the worst first-week performance for a US IPO raising over $500M since 2007.
NOBA (consumer bank) listed in Stockholm, raising $800M and soaring +30% on debut – a potential green shoot in Europe’s IPO desert.
Fermi (data centre REIT) went public on Nasdaq and LSE at a $13B valuation. Founded in Jan 2025 by ex-US Energy Secretary Rick Perry, it has no revenue, a $6.4M loss since inception, and won’t generate revenue within 12 months. Its flagship “Project Matador” aims to deliver 11GW of power by 2038, with 1GW ready by 2026. Reflects how the AI boom is driving speculative listings of infrastructure plays.
Neptune Insurance (flood insurance) listed on NYSE at a $2.4B EV. While not a tech firm per se, its AI-driven underwriting engine is being closely watched as insurance becomes a proving ground for AI risk modelling.
Chamath Palihapitiya launched his first SPAC in four years (AEXA) - a sign of the times?
Navan (travel & fintech) filed for a Nasdaq IPO targeting a $5–7B valuation.
Beta Technologies (electric aircraft) preparing to file for a US IPO later this year; has raised nearly $2B from Fidelity, QIA, TPG Rise.
Ethos (digital life insurance platform) filed for a Nasdaq IPO after hitting $320M TTM revenue. Backers include Sequoia, Accel, GV, SoftBank.
Microsoft is loosening its exclusive ties with OpenAI, offering Copilot users a choice between OpenAI and Anthropic.
Microsoft also restricted access to parts of its cloud and AI services for Israel’s defence ministry after uncovering surveillance use against Palestinians – a rare rebuke that reflects growing employee unrest and the politicisation of AI infrastructure.
Nvidia’s $10B commitment to OpenAI as part of this build-out is raising eyebrows – as Zvi Mowshowitz quipped, “Does Nvidia have too much money?!” Consensus has Nvidia generating $165B free cash flow annually by 2028.
HSBC reported that quantum tools from IBM improved bond-trading predictions by 34% – a dramatic proof-of-concept for quantum in financial markets.
Meta will launch ad-free Instagram and Facebook in the UK (£2.99 web, £3.99 mobile) while rolling out AI-generated short videos. The paid tier meets EU rules on ad consent, but raises questions about authenticity in feeds increasingly filled by bots.
Big Dogs
OpenAI signed a major distribution deal with SAP, targeting German public sector clients that require strict data sovereignty. It shows how aggressively OpenAI is planting flags in Europe, in contrast to Mistral’s more segmented approach.
OpenAI is also expanding its Stargate project with Oracle and SoftBank – an additional 5 US power plants, lifting capacity to 7GW. The expansion highlights the energy arms race underpinning AI.
OpenAI released in-chat checkout for Etsy allowing users buy without leaving a conversation - a significant shift in how consumers may purchase online.
More details have been unveiled re. TikTok’s US joint venture - it has been valued at just $14B, with Bytedance keeping 50% of profits and retaining control of content, data, and algorithm. Washington hails it as a bargain – control of operations for a fraction of value – while Beijing’s silence potentially reflects disappointment.
Stripe is negotiating a $107B share buyback from investors, topping its 2021 peak (and signalling no IPO planned).
Checkout.com is running an employee share buyback at a $12B valuation, (far below its $40B peak). Revenues fell 14% in 2023, then rebounded +45% in 2024, with +30% growth expected this year on $300B processed.
Tether is in talks to raise $15–20B in a private placement that could value it at ~$500B.
Cohere (enterprise-focused LLMs) raised an additional $100M second close at ~$7B valuation.
Venture Capital
Carta’s Q2 2025 fund data offers a window into (principally US) fund performance (Read here)
DPI has long been a pressure point. Many vintages still have DPI <1x, but in Q2, the share of funds that have started returning capital to LPs increased across all vintages.
2017 vintage: ~85% of funds have generated DPI; for 2019 vintages: ~53%.
2017 vintage top funds are >1x: 90th percentile DPI is ~1.79x (way ahead of 90th percentile in 2018 (~0.52x) and 2019 (~0.48x)).
2023 vintage is interesting: ~15% of funds have already begun generating DPI after just six quarters (a reflection of (1) demand for liquidity, (2) AI boom?).
TVPI for all vintages 2017-2023, 75th percentile now exceeds 1x.
2017 vintage, median TVPI is ~2x; top quartile ~2.6x.
Top 10% in 2017 >4.73x. In small 2017 funds ($1M–$10M), the 90th percentile TVPI reaches ~5.33x.
Not all vintages hit these highs. For recent vintages, most funds cluster between 0.8-2x TVPI.
Older funds (pre-2021) have little dry powder left. 2020 vintage funds retain ~11% of committed capital on average. Newer vintages are deploying more aggressively: 2023 vintage hold ~42% in reserve, 2022 vintage ~33%.
Fundraising: bridge rounds (25–40%) continue to take meaningful share, down rounds account for ~20% of deals.
Median wait between rounds:
Seed to A: 774 days
A to B: 903 days
B to C: 877 days
Seed → Series A “graduation”:
15.1% of seed rounds closed in Q119 reached A within 5 quarters.
28.7% of seed-stage startups had raised A by the end of 2yrs.
Matt Miller shared further detail about his new fund, Evantic (“Europe via the Atlantic”). A venture capital firm from London with a global perspective and a community of 140 business partners (“Legends”) who help source, win and build. The firm will share up to 50% of carry with Legends as they work with the portfolio.
Venture Geopolitics
Trump at the UN – Given 15 mins, he spoke for an hour, blasting Europe (“going to hell” over migration and green policies) and telling Zelensky to hand Russian-won land back. Later on Truth Social he claimed Ukraine, backed by the EU, could “fight and WIN all of Ukraine back”. A chaotic performance, capped by a broken escalator and teleprompter.
Trump issued a “Terror Memo” directing federal law enforcement to crack down on “domestic terrorism and organized political violence,” explicitly targeting left-wing groups and protest movements. Critics warn it’s a potential power grab to criminalize dissent and weaponize the state against political opponents (LA Times, NYT).
Trump vs Microsoft – Trump called on Microsoft to sack global affairs chief Lisa Monaco, citing Democrat ties – another sign of politicised corporate pressure.
US chip plan – White House floating rule that every imported chip must be matched by one made in the US, backed by tariff threats.
ECB advice – Households urged to keep cash, food and supplies for 72 hours – a rare nod from Europe’s central bank to systemic fragility.
Pentagon mystery meet – Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has summoned top generals to Virginia with no agenda. Commentators warn it could be anything from a loyalty purge to planning for domestic “homeland defence”. Risky to concentrate the entire command in one room.
Dutch teens as spies – Two 17-year-olds arrested for using wifi sniffers near Europol and embassies. Allegedly recruited by pro-Russian hackers over Telegram – experts say it may be the first case of minors enlisted for foreign espionage in the Netherlands.
UK ransomware hack – 8,000 children’s personal data stolen from Kido nurseries. Analysts called it “an absolute new low” in cyber extortion.
Vietnam – Froze 86M bank accounts for failing to meet new biometric rules (face scan/fingerprint). Accounts will be closed if compliance not met – part of an aggressive “cashless” strategy.
US govt shutdown risk – Funding lapses 1 Oct, 900k workers furloughed, Oct. jobs data delayed. Markets usually shrug, but underlines Washington dysfunction.
UAE – Launched national campaign to become “Startup Capital of the World”: train 10k entrepreneurs, incubate 250 startups, create 30k jobs by 2030, tie founders into procurement. A bold state-driven venture bet.
UK digital ID – PM Starmer announced compulsory nationwide IDs to crack down on illegal work and modernise the state. Controversial but framed as inevitable.
Albania – Appointed Diella, an AI-generated minister, to tackle corruption. Opposition calls it unconstitutional since the “minister” isn’t human. Raises thorny questions: who trains it, whose interests it serves, and could it hallucinate policy??
Strategic Sectors
AI
The defining general-purpose technology of our era, redistributing capital, labour, and power across borders faster than any prior wave.
Deepseek released a new model called V3.2-exp, designed to have dramatically lower inference costs when used in long-context operations.
Accenture cut 11k+ jobs and launched an $865M restructuring, warning it will “exit” employees who cannot be retrained for AI-related roles. Revenues still grew 7% last year, but weak consulting demand and US govt spending cuts are hitting.
OpenAI benchmark GDPval shows its latest model matches or beats human experts in 40%+ of tasks – and likely outperforms juniors in most others.
Harvard Business Review warned 95% of corporate GenAI pilots deliver no ROI – producing “workslop” that drains productivity and trust.
Notable deal: Black Forest Labs (genAI models for images) in talks to raise $300M at $4B, with A16Z potential lead.
Cybersecurity
Digital resilience is now economic resilience, with hacks shaping geopolitics as much as armies.
UK govt will guarantee a £1.5B loan for Jaguar Land Rover after a cyber shutdown – sparking “moral hazard” concerns.
Notable deals: ObotAI (open-source control pane for MCP servers) raised $35M from Mayfield. Prelude Security (endpoint defence) raised $16M led by Brightmind with Sequoia/Insight. revel8 (AI cyber-training) raised $6.6M seed led by Peak. Belfort (encrypted data chips) raised $6M seed led by Vsquared.
Defence
Where frontier tech collides with national security, blurring the line between startup innovation and state power.
Poland now buys 60% of Taiwan’s drone exports.
Telegraph warned hybrid attacks across Europe threaten NATO’s credibility.
Germany’s Friedrich Merz proposed €140B interest-free loan to Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian assets.
Notable deal: Auterion (AI defence drones) raised $130M Series B led by Bessemer, with Lakestar and Mosaic also in.
Stablecoins & crypto
Currency is sovereignty; programmable money reshapes who controls trade, savings, and financial infrastructure.
Seven European banks will launch a euro stablecoin in 2026, pitched as fast, low-cost and programmable for cross-border payments. It reflects Europe’s desire to reduce reliance on US-dollar stablecoins and ensure sovereignty in digital money infrastructure. The initiative could also dovetail with the EU’s digital euro, though questions remain about uptake beyond regional trade.
Coinbase is building a super app to bundle crypto, payments and financial services – effectively aiming to become a bank replacement.
Cloudflare launched NET Dollar, a $-backed coin for AI agent micro-payments, framing it as a path to monetise the web via pay-per-use instead of ads or subscriptions. Its neutrality as infra giant gives it credibility, but centralisation and regulatory risks remain.
SWIFT is piloting a blockchain system with 30 banks.
Notable deal: Zerohash (crypto + tokenisation infra for big banks and fintechs) raised $104M Series D at $1B valuation, led by Interactive Brokers with Morgan Stanley, Apollo and SoFi.
Space
The new high ground, where control of orbital infrastructure underpins communications, defence, and the global economy.
NATO committed $728M to new space capabilities, including a data lake in Germany, strengthening joint situational awareness.
Planet (US spacecraft maker) will start satellite production in Berlin, tightening transatlantic supply chains.
Notable deal: Cosmoserve Space (India, robotic spacecraft for debris removal) raised $3.2M pre-seed led by Alan Rutledge.
Robotics
AI moving into the physical world creates new labour markets, new productivity frontiers, and new strategic dependencies.
A16Z discusses how China is applying the same playbook it used to dominate solar photovoltaics and 5G to robotics – heavy state backing, scaled manufacturing, and aggressive global expansion. With AI progress now embedding intelligence into physical systems, the race is shifting toward generalist robots capable of a wide range of tasks across manufacturing, services, and defence. China, not the US, is betting most heavily on this future – a shift that could redefine work, society, and geopolitics as robots move from narrow, pre-programmed machines to adaptable, multi-purpose agents (Read here)
Notable deal: Nuro (AI-first self-driving) closed $203M Series E at $6B with Uber/Nvidia/Tiger.