Google is offering voluntary redundancy and mandating a full office return, widely seen as a push to trigger resignations – this is a firm that understands better than most what is possible with AI. At the same time, reports show AI researchers commanding signing bonuses upwards of $100M. “AI labs now resemble sports teams” (Sequoia) – talent wars, eye-watering packages, and a winner-takes-all logic.
IPOs / Public
Circle and Chime listed earlier this month, awakening IPO markets in our world after a drought.
Meta is reportedly finalising a ~$10B round for Scale AI (data-labelling), on top of Scale’s $1B Series F at an $18B valuation. Meta is seeking to acquire 49% of the business, a move to double down on AI infrastructure and training data – in an arms race to own the raw material that powers future models, and talent…
Meta is also on a hiring spree: Zuck and Alexandr Wang (ex-Scale AI, founder) are leading a new “superintelligence” team. Compensation packages reportedly >$100M for defectors from OpenAI and DeepMind.
Big Dogs
Elon Musk’s xAI is raising $4.3B equity and seeking $5B debt after burning most of its $14B war chest. Targeting $80B valuation, scrambling to reassure lenders.
Stripe led a $70M Series D at $920M post-money for Posthog (product analytics).
Accel led an $82M Series C at $1.25B valuation for Linear (project management dev tools, Finnish-founded), with backing from Seven Seven Six, Designer Fund, Sequoia, and 01A.
Venture Capital Insights
a16z benchmarks for GenAI enterprise startups: median $2.1M ARR at month 12 (2x old benchmark of $1M). Bottom quartile $1.2M ARR, top quartile $5.3M ARR. Median Series A raised in 9 months, top quartile in 7 months.
Carta Q1 report (US data): graduation from Seed to A still weak (Q1’23 cohort 15.5% raised an A within 2y vs 32.8% for Q1’21). Median time: Seed→A 2y, A→B 2.7y, B→C 2.5y. Down rounds remain stubbornly high (>18.4% for 9 quarters straight).
Dragos Novac: US Tier-1 funds active in Europe – Accel (15 bets), GC (15), Sequoia (10), a16z (8), Lightspeed (8). Top verticals: AI security, dev infra, creative tools. Pre-Series A: deep defensibility or rapid GTM velocity required. $100M+ rounds reserved for deep-tech compute/infra (Mistral, Helsing). $5–10M early rounds dominated by info asymmetry and technical founding teams.
Wilson Sonsini report: UK Q1’25 saw 1,168 deals / £3.74B invested (<10% down on Q4’24, >30% down YoY). Pre-seed dominated by SAFEs (91%), median raise $700k, median cap $17M. Seed ~$4M, Series A ~$12M (median val $49M). Series B valuations up; Series C and later down. Energy/infra themes highlighted: resilient grids, wildfire mitigation, AI’s water/energy demands.
Azeem Azhar highlighted Hendrik Bessembinder’s research: 2% of US public firms drove 90% of wealth creation over the past century – most destroy value. Marc Andreessen: “long-term public market investing is venture capital investing, whether you like it or not.”
Venture Geopolitics
Trump unveiled the GENIUS Act, a federal framework for stablecoins. Defines issuers, reserve/capital/liquidity/compliance rules, and allows institutional investment in US-issued stablecoins. Implications: strengthens US control over global digital money, favours regulated players (USDC) over offshore rivals (Tether) and inserts currency competition into venture geopolitics. Despite this advance, the bill faces an uncertain reception in the Republican-controlled House.
Blackstone is planning to invest up to $500B in Europe over 10 years, targeting infra, tech, and private markets.
Strategic Sectors
AI
Researchers found Gemini and Claude “panicked” in Pokémon tests – Gemini’s reasoning deteriorated near defeat; Claude made bizarre escape choices. Suggests reasoning brittleness in LLMs under pressure.
Autonomous vehicles
Applied Intuition (autonomous driving dev software) raised $600M Series F at $15B valuation (2.5x Series E). Co-led by BlackRock, Kleiner Perkins, QIA, ADIA, and Greycroft, with existing backers GC, Lux, Elad Gil, Bond.
Defence
Mach Industries (unmanned aerial systems for defence) raised $100M at $470M valuation. Backed by Khosla, Bedrock, and Sequoia.
Quantum
Oxford Ionics (quantum chipmaker spun out of Oxford Uni in 2019) acquired by US-based IonQ in a $1.075B all-stock deal. Raised ~$50M from Oxford Science Enterprises, Braavos, Prosus. Seen by many as a blow to UK quantum sovereignty.
Crypto
Coinbase secured EU-wide regulatory approval under MiCA via Luxembourg’s CSSF. Enables roll-out of full crypto services across EU, challenging incumbents Bitstamp, Bitvavo, and Bitpanda.